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The upcoming 2026 elections are the primary focus in Brazil currently, as shown by data from a survey of Ibovespa investors’ sentiments conducted by BTG Pactual at the CEO Conference event in February.
About 47% of participants identified the subject as the primary concern currently, surpassing the fiscal outlook, which received 42% of the votes.
Seventy-two percent of respondents expressed the greatest worry in the international arena about the outlook for US interest rates, with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs following closely at 17%, as reported by “Valor”.
Managers who are positive about the Ibovespa.
Most investors believe that Ibovespa is undervalued, with 62% considering it to be subvalued and 22% seeing it as extremely undervalued.
Managers are becoming more confident about increasing their position in the Brazilian index, with around 45% now willing to do so, up from 34% in the previous month.
The BTG survey suggests that optimism is increasing among investors, who are still predicting modest gains for the Ibovespa.
Estimates for the Ibovespa index increased from 34% in January to 39% in February, with more people now expecting it to exceed 140,000 points.
Most managers reported stable investment flow, with 54% indicating stability compared to 58% in the previous month. However, 30% experienced fluctuations, up from 31% in the previous month.
Most interviewees still expect the dollar to appreciate against the Brazilian real in the exchange market, with the majority predicting it to range between R$5.9 and R$6.0 by the end of the year.
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