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The main index of Brazil’s stock market, the Ibovespa, started Thursday with increases as investors kept an eye on the euro area’s upcoming monetary policy decision that is expected to include another interest rate reduction.
Investors also monitor the tariff actions taken by Donald Trump.
At approximately 10:15 AM (Bolivian Time), the market reached a peak of 0.05%, at 123.110 points.
The business dollar moved in the same way as the index, showing a 0.21% increase and being valued at R$ 5.75.
These elements, including cryptocurrencies, Trump tariffs, and GDP expectations, did not cause significant market fluctuations on the previous day. The Ibovespa B3 index remained almost unchanged, with a slight increase of 0.20%, ending the day at 123,047 points.
Today, similar to Wednesday, the trend indicates a day with minimal volatility. There are no significant anticipated data in the current situation.
The focus shifts to the monetary policy decision in the eurozone and Christine Lagarde’s press conference at the European Central Bank. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia and its economic effects may also receive attention.
The European economy does not hold as much influence as the United States’, so its effect on Brazilian scholarships is likely to be less significant.
Ibovespa increases ahead of GDP release
Ibovespa shows increases at the start of trading, with the market anticipating the release of the GDP data.
Paulo Gala, the chief economist of Banco Master, discussed the projections for the 2024 GDP, emphasizing a predicted growth of 3.5% from 2023.
Gala stated that growth will be driven by industry and services, with the industrial sector expected to grow by 3% and the service sector keeping up with this rate. He also highlighted the importance of significant investment, noting that the gross formation of fixed capital is projected to rise by nearly 10% from 2023.
The agricultural industry is expected to show more moderate performance, with a projected growth of approximately 1%. Gala pointed out that adverse weather events, like those in Rio Grande do Sul, have had a detrimental impact on agriculture.
Some experts predict a GDP growth of 3.6% to 3.7%, but the speaker emphasized that 3.5% is a reasonable expectation for the future.
Gala reported that the performance in the last quarter of 2023 showed weaker growth, with an approximate 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter compared to the third.
Last year, there was a reduced Selic rate and increased fiscal incentives, particularly in the first half of the year, which helped stimulate the economy.
Gala highlighted that the rise in social benefits like the Family Grant and Unemployment Insurance played a significant role in economic growth by boosting GDP, particularly benefiting the low-income group, known for their high consumption rates.
He mentioned that 2024 is expected to show the strongest economic growth in the past decade, with the exception of the pandemic recovery in 2021.
United States of America
Thursday (6) starts with declines in the main US future indices following an initial recovery effort fueled by optimism about potential tariff concessions.
The day before, Dow Jones saw a 1.14% increase, S&P 500 went up by 1.12%, and Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.46%. Despite these gains, the three indices are still down by more than 1% for the week.
US future indices quotation.
Dow Jones Future is down by 0.47%.
S&P 500 Future decreased by 0.57%.
Nasdaq Future is down by 0.56%.
Asian handbags
The Asia-Pacific markets closed on Thursday with mostly positive results following the delay of certain US tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Hang Seng saw a 3.29% increase due to investors’ optimistic outlook on potential positive announcements at the Chinese government ministries conference in Beijing.
Chinese officials set a growth target of around 5% for the period up to 2025 during their yearly parliamentary meeting, marking the first instance in over a decade that Beijing has maintained the same growth objective for three years in a row.
President Xi Jinping restated China’s commitment to pursue substantial growth this year, despite the challenges presented by the trade war.
Shanghai Stock Exchange in China recorded a gain of 1.17%.
Nikkei in Japan increased by 0.77%.
Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 3.29%.
Kospi in South Korea increased by 0.70%.
ASX 200 in Australia experienced a decrease of 0.57%.
Scholarships available in Europe
European markets are mostly up as investors anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision, which is expected to include a 25 base point reduction in the interest rate to 2.5%.
The DAX of Germany increased by 3.4% on Wednesday, marking its strongest daily performance since November 2022.
Investors were optimistic due to expectations of stronger growth and a notable rise in investments in infrastructure and defense.
Politicians agreed historically to reform tax regulations and debt limits, leading to the movement.
FTSE 100 in the UK decreased by 0.41%.
DAX in Germany increased by 1.21%.
CAC 40 of France increased by 0.39%.
FTSE MIB in Italy increased by 0.71%.
STOXX 600: Up by 0.24%
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