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Investors in Brazil are more worried about the upcoming political cycle than fiscal issues, as indicated by a survey conducted during the 2025 CEO Conference of BTG Pactual. 47% of respondents expressed greater concern about Brazil’s political future starting in 2026, compared to 42% who were pessimistic about government fiscal policy.
Estimates from a month ago were revised, with only 28% of the public placing more importance on the upcoming political changes expected by 2026. Inflationary pressure and economic slowdown remain significant concerns in the latest findings.
In the worldwide scenario, 72% of investors are worried about the behavior of U.S. interest rates, whereas only 17% see President Donald Trump’s tariffs as the main challenge for the market, as per a study.
Investors remained positive about Ibovespa and willing to take risks, despite being cautious. In February, 31% of investors expressed optimism, while 62% believed that the stock market was undervalued. The percentage of investors who felt comfortable with risk appetite increased to 49%, a significant rise from the previous survey’s 36%.
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The utilities sector, comprising electrical energy and sanitation companies, remains a popular choice for investment, with a significant increase in preference from 37% to 57% within a one-month period according to the study.
Retail, however, favors selling quickly, with 35% of investors suggesting a swift sale of shares. The primary short-selling targets include Ambev, Bradesco, and Renner Stores.
Decrease in Lula’s popularity leads to investors experiencing fear of missing out.
President Lula’s declining popularity has unsettled the market, leading to political uncertainty and eliciting mixed responses from investors. The most recent survey, indicating a mere 24% approval rating for the government, has quickly impacted the market.
Analysts believe that this situation has intensified the fear of missing out in trading and exchange activities, also known as “FOMO”.
The quick decline in Lula’s popularity is evident in the recent high numbers recorded in the polls following the Datafolha report. Nonetheless, according to JP Morgan’s analysis, while there is some anxiety in the Brazilian political landscape, it is premature to draw conclusions regarding the 2026 elections.
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