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Former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently barred from running until 2030 due to allegations of political misconduct and media misuse, is ahead in the polls for the 2026 presidential elections in a scenario with Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB), as per a recent study by AtlasIntel. In this simulation, Bolsonaro is leading over Lula.
In a simulation of the 2022 election, Bolsonaro receives 45.8% of the votes, with Lula securing 42.9%.
Ciro Gomes has a 4.4% rating, while Tebet has 2.7%. In the second round, Bolsonaro is ahead with 49%, compared to Lula’s 48%, setting up a polarized contest similar to that of 2022. 4% of respondents are undecided or choose not to respond, along with blank or null votes.
Tarcisio and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s scenarios involve intense conflict with Lula.
In a scenario where Tarcisio de Freitas replaces Bolsonaro, Lula receives 41.6% of the votes, while Tarcisio gets 32.3%.
Following that, Gusttavo Lima, a singer with no political affiliation, and Ronaldo Caiado, the governor of Goiás representing União, both have a 4.6% share. Romeo Zema, the governor of Minas Gerais from the New party, holds a 4.5% share, with Simone Tebet at 3.2%.
Other contenders like Pablo Marçal (PRTB), Eduardo Leite (PSDB), and Marina Silva (Rede) have lower percentages. In a potential runoff between Lula and Tarcisio, the governor of São Paulo is ahead with 49% compared to Lula’s 47%, with 4% of voters undecided or casting blank/null ballots.
Lula leads with 41.5% in a potential matchup with Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has 23.8% support.
In the second round of voting between Lula and Eduardo, the president holds 48% of the vote, while the federal deputy has 44%. 9% of respondents were undecided or chose to withhold their vote.
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