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The average rate of non-regulated free resource default is expected to be 5.22% in March 2025, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points compared to December, based on data from Ibevar – FIA Business School.
The estimated average is derived from a range of estimated values between 4.87% and 5.58%.
Ibevar President Claudio Felisoni stated that, based on the reduced delays and available resources, it is likely that the rate of inadmissibility for March 2025 will fall between the average (5.22%) and the lower limit (4.87%) of the estimated range, as reported by “InfoMoney”.
XP reduces its forecast for the Brazilian currency.
XP Investimentos’ recent report on the exchange situation suggested that the dollar’s decrease in value in December might have been overstated. Analysts adjusted their forecast for the foreign currency’s value at the end of the period from R $ 6.20 to R $ 6.00 due to a partial recovery of the real earlier in the year.
The house also lowered its long-term estimates, reducing the forecast from R $ 6.40 to R $ 6.20 by the end of 2026.
XP also noted that, in a scenario where the Brazilian real returns to R $ 6,00, they believe the exchange rate will remain low, with their model indicating the US dollar at R $ 5,90.
Recent changes in domestic exchange rates are believed to be the reason for the R$ 0.10 difference. XP stated that they see the risk balance leaning towards a more depreciated exchange rate compared to the projection of R$ 5.90.
Economists Rodolfo Margato, Luíza Pinese, and strategists Victor Scalet and André Buzzini believe that the chances of a more severe trade war and the implementation of unconventional economic policies in Brazil have risen in recent weeks.
Brazil’s upcoming electoral cycle is expected to lead to an increase in exchange rate volatility, with analysts projecting a rate of R $ 6.20 per dollar by the end of 2026 in line with inflation differentials.
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